WP3 will produce empirically-calibrated predictive models of the climate change-migration nexus at different spatial and temporal scales.
WP3 will quantify the assumptions of WP1 and the drivers and relationships between migration and climate change identified in WP2 to produce predictive models and quantitative scenarios of future migration flows. By using different quantitative modelling techniques – including agent-based modelling and gravity models – WP3 will develop five sets of models to address various scales and types of migration. This WP will model climate change impacts and provide global scenarios of future international migration under climate change. Moving from the global, WP3 will also model internal migration and displacement in the Horn of Africa and Mali . A final scenario will focus on small-scale coastal fishing communities in Senegal which will serve as input for the Aid to Decision tool for Dakar artisanal fishermen (WP6). The results of this WP will be used to inform policy makers and other relevant stakeholders about possible scenarios of future migration flows.
HABITABLE aims to significantly advance our understanding of the current interlinkages between climate impacts and migration and displacement patterns, in order to better anticipate their future evolutions.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 869395. The content reflects only the authors’ views, and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
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