Scenarios in HABITABLE
This video series by the EU-funded HABITABLE project examines how changes in the climate and environment are influencing how people perceive the “habitability” of where they live and their decisions about migration. By developing plausible scenarios for how global warming may shape migration in different contexts, the project aims to aid the planning and implementation of measures to support adaptation, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability.
This work complements other work in the project by exploring the uncertainties of future climate-related migration and the various social, political, economic, environmental and demographic conditions influencing it. This exercise was not about predicting exact outcomes; rather they aimed to imagine various plausible futures to help in strategic planning and adaptation.
The scenario narratives are just one of the approaches for looking into the future in the project. Work Package 3 produced quantitative models forecasting future migration patterns and disaster-related human displacement risks at the regional and international level, while Work Package 2 ran scenarios using the FCM decision-making networks to test how different policy options may influence individual decision-making processes.
Work package 7 produced two sets of qualitative scenario narratives that aim to complement “bigger picture” quantitative work with more comprehensive insight into the underlying processes driving change and the evolving realities on the ground.
Animated scenario videos
The video series feature different characters living in fragile contexts in the primary HABITABLE research countries, and the stories of how their lives develop in the years up to 2030 and 2050. They show how, as the impacts of climate change intensify, those on the frontlines are using a variety of strategies to adapt and survive, including migration.
How effective these strategies are will depend not just on the climate impacts themselves – for example, increasing rainfall variability, drought or flooding – but on a wide variety of social, political, economic, environmental and demographic factors. These may include, for instance, access to education, training, and alternative livelihoods, the strength of social protections and support networks, and the availability of capital, including from remittances sent by family working elsewhere – as well as the effectiveness of early warning systems and emergency response and recovery measures in the case of disasters.
The stories also show that decisions to migrate are not taken lightly – while they may open up opportunities for migrants and their families and communities, there are also significant costs to consider. The options, opportunities, and costs for each person also vary according to more individual characteristics, including their gender, age and place in the household
Towards a habitable future in 2030
These stories explore the concept of habitability through two different types of scenarios developed by the adelphi team. The first set of stories are based on crisis response scenarios that revolve around a major climate impact in the year 2030. We see how prepared each of our storytellers was for such an event and how it affects their lives, livelihood and the habitability of where they live in the aftermath.
To consider while you watch:
- How vulnerable was our storyteller to the crisis in 2030 and why?
- What could be done today to prepare for such a crisis and prevent its worst outcomes?
Migration, habitability and climate change in Ghana in 2030
This video tells the story of Fuseina and her family as they seek to cope with the impacts of a severe drought in northern Ghana. In the face of such a crisis, not everyone will be able to move out of harm’s way.
Migration, habitability and climate change in Ethiopia in 2030
The story of Abdi, an Ethiopian farmer, illustrates the variety of strategies that people in rural areas are using to cope with changing rainfall patterns.
Migration, habitability and climate change in Mali in 2030
This video tells the story of Amina, a teenager from the Fulani community living in central Mali, as she and her family seek to cope with the impacts of increasing rainfall variability, drought and flooding on their lives and livelihoods in the years up to 2030. Her story illustrates how children will face numerous challenges due to the direct and indirect effects of climate change.
Towards a habitable future in 2050
This second set of stories is based on aspirational scenarios for the year 2050. The scenarios are based on the premise that the impacts of climate crisis are continuing to unfold, but that social, economic and political conditions have evolved to facilitate robust adaptation measures, including migration as an effective strategy to cope with and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Our storytellers explain how they were able to overcome the climate-related economic and social challenges that they faced in the early 2020s thanks to supportive policies and programmes.
To consider while you watch:
- What kind of measures and action are needed to realise each of these aspirational futures?
- How can framing existing challenges as opportunities aid in changing other narratives and policies at the intersection of climate and migration?
Migration, habitability and climate change in Ghana in 2050
Fuseina’s son Issah moves to the Ghanaian capital Accra to find work to support his family. Initially faced with harsh living and working conditions, he is able to turn his life around thanks to opportunities that arise in the course of Ghana’s green and digital transformation.
Migration, habitability and climate change in Kenya in 2050
In Kenya, we meet Faith, who sees her family’s income reduced due to drought and other climate change impacts, but she receives new opportunities through access to credit and investment in education. Swahili version available here.
Migration, habitability and climate change in Thailand in 2050
The story of Somsak from Thailand shows the opportunities and costs associated with migration, but ultimately he and his wife are able to return home to their village and family thanks to investment in training, sustainable development and ecotourism.
Migration, habitability and climate change in Thailand in 2050
Samnang sees no option but to work on the rubber plantations in Thailand to support her family back in rural Cambodia. Later, thanks to the implementation of supportive policies for migrant workers, she is able to set up her own business and reunite with her family.
These scenarios were developed as part of the EU-funded HABITABLE project on the basis of HABITABLE field work and extensive desk research, as well as interviews and workshop discussions with experts in the fields of migration, climate change and sustainable development in each of the respective countries
