Institutional Lead
WP3 Lead
WP6 and WP7
WP3 Lead
WP6 and WP7
We present a new international migration model that combines stochastic sampling techniques with dynamic accounting of flows by means of evolution equations. Migration flows are sampled from paramaterized probability distributions based on reported migration flow data that is partitioned by socio-economic covariates. This method allows for non-trivial time evolution that goes beyond extrapolation, while requiring minimal prior knowledge about the elusive processes driving migration flows. It thus combines the advantages of different existing modeling approaches. In hindcasts our model compares well with bilateral migrant stock data in many world regions and country income groups. Moreover, we observe a significant difference between the full model and its deterministic formulation, which highlights the non-Gaussian and interdependent nature of migration flow distributions and corroborates the use of a stochastic approach. Our model can be flexibly extended with additional information, e.g. regional migration policies, which are expected to further improve the agreement with data.
HABITABLE aims to significantly advance our understanding of the current interlinkages between climate impacts and migration and displacement patterns, in order to better anticipate their future evolutions.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 869395. The content reflects only the authors’ views, and the European Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.
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