Quantitative Coefficients on the Sensitivity of Tipping Points

This deliverable examines the coefficients related to the sensitivity of tipping points from the surveys conducted under WP1. By utilising data collected from Ghana, the authors analyse the dynamics that influence household decisions regarding outmigration in response to perceived climate shocks. The Ghana coefficients demonstrate the method for identifying the relevant coefficients and will be applied in subsequent analysis for all survey locations.
The panel analysis demonstrates that exposure to climate shocks—specifically drought, erratic rainfall, flooding, and heat stress—have a significant bearing on outmigration rates, highlighting the profound impact of environmental factors on the migration decisions of affected populations. When economic and household-level variables are incorporated, financial security and adaptability within the current residence can increase the propensity to migrate, while previous environmental loss appears to deter migration. These offsetting effects underscore the nuanced role that assets and resources play in migration decision-making. Additionally, the interplay of individual characteristics—gender, marital status, education, and age—with these environmental factors adds complexity, suggesting that personal circumstances are entwined with the experience of climate shocks in driving migration patterns.
The insights from the Ghanaian context shed light on the intricate nature of migration decisions amid climate change. This knowledge is valuable for policymakers and practitioners tasked with formulating strategies to enhance the resilience of vulnerable communities. The goal is to ensure that such strategies are rooted in evidence and finely tuned to the intricate realities faced by those most impacted by climate variability.