Addressing human mobility in the context of climate change, disasters, and environmental degradation: Developments in Ethiopia’s national and regional policy and legal frameworks

Climate change contributes to more intense and disruptive extreme weather events, such as prolonged droughts and heavy rains or flooding, around the world. The impacts of these extremes vary regionally and locally, compounding existing livelihood insecurities which affect human mobility patterns. Moreover, there is an increasing concern that tensions may arise in communities of migrant origin or destination when climate hazards collide with fragile livelihoods, particularly where resources are scarce. With wetter, cooler highlands and hotter, drier lowlands, the effects of climate change in Ethiopia, particularly on agriculture-based livelihoods, are complex. Applying a very likely level of confidence (90-100%), the projected increase in air temperatures in the country ranges from +0.9–1.1 oC by 2030, +1.7–2.1 oC by 2050, and +2.7–3.4 oC by 2080, relative to pre-industrial levels and depending on how effectively greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are contained globally (PIK, 2022). Increased rainfall and severe droughts are already stressing fragile ecosystems, resulting in more frequent water shortages, crop failure, livestock deaths, and, ultimately, contributing to (forced) internal population movements. Current research concludes that the evidence for a causal link between extreme weather events motivating human mobility in East Africa and anthropogenic climate change is ‘unfit’ (Thalheimer et al. 2021:9). Multifarious factors – including social, political, economic, demographic, and environmental drivers – add to reshaping human mobility patterns in the context of climate change, disasters, and environmental degradation in Ethiopia. In this context, climatic change and its effects act as a risk multiplier. For instance, reduced rainfall during the traditional rainy season in 2019 led to drought conditions that affected the Southern and Southeastern parts of the country. Such conditions impacted agro-pastoral communities, driving down crop yields, reducing fodder for livestock, and contributing to population movements in these regions (Webster et al., 2020: 24).
Whereas drought is an issue in parts of the country, heavier-than-usual rainfall can also result in significant flooding, for example, in the low-lying parts of the country. In this context, IOM estimated that approximately 200,000 individuals were internally displaced in October 2019 due to flood incidences in Afar, Oromia, Somali, and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR). In total, over 4,5 million people in Ethiopia were living in displacement as of April 2022 (see Figure 1). Even though the distinct dimensions of human mobility inthe context of climate change, disasters, and environmental degradation have been typical, since November 2020, the Northern Ethiopia Crisis has been the primary driver for displacement at the national level (Ibid.: 24). More importantly, displacement is accompanied by other forms of mobility driven by environmental changes. Among others, these include rural-to-urban migration, international labour migration, as well as planned relocation processes. This briefing paper explores the ways in which the interplay amongst climate change, disasters, environmental degradation, and human mobility is reflected in Ethiopia’s current policy and legal frameworks. It aims to identify strategies for the improved management of population movements at the national level. Besides offering a concise summary of how the impacts of climate change, disasters, and environmental degradation affect mobility patterns in the country, the document (i) investigates the extent to which existing national policies and legal instruments, including those from regional organisations of which Ethiopia is a member; and (ii) provides concluding remarks.