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Scenarios in HABITABLE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This video series by the EU-funded HABITABLE project examines how changes in the climate and environment are influencing how people perceive the \u201chabitability\u201d of where they live and their decisions about migration. By developing plausible scenarios for how global warming may shape migration in different contexts, the project aims to aid the planning and implementation of measures to support adaptation, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This work complements other work in the project by exploring the uncertainties of future climate-related migration and the various social, political, economic, environmental and demographic conditions influencing it. This exercise was not about predicting exact outcomes; rather they aimed to imagine various plausible futures to help in strategic planning and adaptation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The scenario narratives are just one of the approaches for looking into the future in the project. Work Package 3 produced quantitative models forecasting future migration patterns and disaster-related human displacement risks at the regional and international level, while Work Package 2 ran scenarios using the FCM decision-making networks to test how different policy options may influence individual decision-making processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Work package 7 produced two sets of qualitative scenario narratives that aim to complement \u201cbigger picture\u201d quantitative work with more comprehensive insight into the underlying processes driving change and the evolving realities on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Animated scenario videos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The video series feature different characters living in fragile contexts in the primary HABITABLE research countries, and the stories of how their lives develop in the years up to 2030 and 2050. They show how, as the impacts of climate change intensify, those on the frontlines are using a variety of strategies to adapt and survive, including migration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How effective these strategies are will depend not just on the climate impacts themselves \u2013 for example, increasing rainfall variability, drought or flooding \u2013 but on a wide variety of social, political, economic, environmental and demographic factors. These may include, for instance, access to education, training, and alternative livelihoods, the strength of social protections and support networks, and the availability of capital, including from remittances sent by family working elsewhere \u2013 as well as the effectiveness of early warning systems and emergency response and recovery measures in the case of disasters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The stories also show that decisions to migrate are not taken lightly \u2013 while they may open up opportunities for migrants and their families and communities, there are also significant costs to consider. The options, opportunities, and costs for each person also vary according to more individual characteristics, including their gender, age and place in the household<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n These stories explore the concept of habitability through two different types of scenarios developed by the adelphi team<\/a>. The first set of stories are based on crisis response scenarios that revolve around a major climate impact in the year 2030. We see how prepared each of our storytellers was for such an event and how it affects their lives, livelihood and the habitability of where they live in the aftermath.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To consider while you watch:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n Migration, habitability and climate change in Ghana in 2030<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n This video tells the story of Fuseina and her family as they seek to cope with the impacts of a severe drought in northern Ghana. In the face of such a crisis, not everyone will be able to move out of harm\u2019s way.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\nTowards a habitable future in 2030<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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